Unlike most agricultural crops, Christmas tree farmers must forecast their harvests eight-to-10 years in advance.  

This long-term planning predicament helps explain why the supply of trees on a local and national scale has remained mostly flat, despite climbing demand.  

“Ten years ago, we were coming out of a recession,” said Jennifer Greene, executive director of the N.C. Christmas Tree Association. “Who would have thought of such an increased demand?” 

Barr Evergreens sets up a lot on the corner of Shipyard and Independence boulevards  filled with trees harvested on the Crumpler, North Carolina farm, just 6 miles from the Virginia state line in Ashe County.  

This year, the farm harvested 40,000 trees, about 10% more than last year, thanks to a decade-old planning decision, according to lot manager Brad Jordan. These cuts contribute to the most prolific Christmas tree harvesting county in the nation, with Ashe County producing 1.8 million in 2017, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture last conducted its census. That’s about half of all the trees North Carolina produced that year; experts guess production this year will fall somewhere between 4 and 5 million, which would mark an incline from the last official count.  

Like most goods, Christmas tree price tags are higher this year.  

An average tree at the Shipyard Boulevard lot is running at about $80, Jordan said, with costs about 10-15% up from last year.  

Hikes in fertilizer, fuel, materials, labor, and transportation are similarly impacting growers, Greene explained. “You have to think, a Christmas tree farmer has a window of so many weeks out of the year that they had to get their product harvested and ready and shipped,” she said. “One complication can be huge.” 

Both Jordan and Greene said demand is up 20% this year. There may be a pandemic-related boost at play, with people having either more time indoors to tend to a tree or craving a sense of nature, Greene said.  

Buyers in 2020 were younger, averaging 38 years old, compared to the 42-year-old 2019 average, according to the National Christmas Tree Association. Online orders (via mail-order trees, a growing but small segment of the industry), and urban buyers were also on the rise.  

Jordan said Barr Evergreens has already positioned itself to bulk up production, with 7 acres of greenhouses filled with 5-10 million seedlings growing each season, and 600 planted acres. The operation’s primary retail market is Wilmington, Jordan said, with a wholesale market all along the East Coast. It’s about a 20/80% split among the retail and wholesale side, respectively, Jordan said, with clients including other tree lots and big-box stores.  

The Wilmington lot will likely be cleared out by next weekend, and the wholesale side sold out in May. “We always sell out,” he said.  

Nationwide, Christmas tree harvesting has taken a downturn, dipping 12% between 2012 and 2017, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data, but Greene objects to any talk of a shortage: “There is going to be a tree for the people who want one.”  

“Growers can't quickly respond to an increase in tree demand” she said, given the lengthy growth cycle. 

From seed to 1-foot-tall sapling, it takes one year; thereafter, the trees grow about a foot a year, Jordan explained. Most trees on the market are between 6 and 8 feet tall. It’s tough for buyers looking in the 9-foot-plus range, Greene said.  

Fraser firs – the most popular species in the state and nation – can only grow in North Carolina’s high-altitude, mountainous region, with a cluster of counties on the western end of the state producing all of its trees. 

This region also happens to be a thriving second-home real estate market, which has driven up land costs and makes entry and expansion in the industry challenging, according to Greene. The association encourages a younger generation of farmers to embrace the family business to keep the state’s Christmas tree industry strong.