“Water, water every where … nor any drop to drink,” goes the famous verse from The Rime of the Ancient Mariner. With increasing demands on the lower Cape Fear region’s surface and groundwater supplies, some officials are concerned that, despite being surrounded by water, the area could see inadequate water resources to support growth if they don’t take steps soon.

Among those advocating planning now to ensure a sustainable water supply is Shane Johnson, chief operating officer of the Wilmington Regional Association of Realtors (WRAR).

“Water is a quality-of-life issue, and that’s one of our priorities: maintaining the quality of life here,” he said. “That’s why people move here. They like the river, the beach, the habitat. If we lose that, we lose people moving here.”

Johnson doesn’t seriously think the rivers, creeks and estuaries will dry up, but he does think about the quantity of freshwater that will be needed for the area’s projected population growth and corollary business growth.

The 2013 U.S. Geological Survey National Water Census identifying the Coastal Basins of the Carolinas – roughly, southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina – as one of six “focus areas” in the U.S. needing study grabbed Johnson’s attention.

Johnson thinks WRAR, with its 2,200 members who are on the frontlines of selling the region to prospective  businesses and homeowners, could play a critical role in examining water resources and other issues associated with economic development.

He approached Mike Giles of the N.C. Coastal Federation, which was planning a conference on water. The two organizations, along with University of North Carolina Wilmington’s Master of Public Administration program, formed the Three Star Alliance to host the summit and similar issue-oriented events in the future.

The summit, held Oct. 28, drew several hundred businesspeople and environmentalists and featured elected officials as well as representatives of the N.C. Department of Environmental Quality, New Hanover County, Cape Fear Public Utility Authority, the USGS, East Carolina University and UNCW.

Several speakers noted there is cause for concern that the area is mining freshwater aquifers – a term that means water is being removed faster than it is being replenished.

Ongoing/projected population increases in the “land-limited” Coastal Basins of the Carolinas region will mean higher population density and a more stressed interface between freshwater and saltwater, according to Kristin McSwain, a hydrologist with the USGS.

She said that other factors, such as frequent droughts and hurricanes in the area, sea level rise, land use change and climate change “will impact aquifer water levels, frequency, duration and magnitude of stream flow and salinity intrusion near water supply intakes.”

Surface water supplies can’t be taken for granted either, according to Giles, who said that the Cape Fear is the most industrialized river in the state.

State Rep. Rick Catlin (R-New Hanover), speaking to the summit via video, talked about interbasin transfers of water upriver, which allow heavily populated areas to take water from the Cape Fear.

Catlin, who owns an environmental and geotechnical engineering firm, urged that the approval process for future interbasin transfers include an evaluation of whether supplies of surface and groundwater downriver are sustainable. If groundwater supplies are not adequate, the area will run out of river water more quickly, Catlin said.

He also reminded the audience of the recent chemical contamination of water supplies in West Virginia and the coal ash spill into North Carolina’s Dan River.

“We must protect the water coming out of our rivers,” he said.

A conservative estimate is that the population of Brunswick, New Hanover and Pender counties, roughly 362,000 in the 2010 census, will grow to between 552,000 and 688,000 by 2040, according to Gary McSmith, the manager of planning and design for CFPUA.

All three counties depend on the same aquifers and river for their water.

While the supply of water won’t change much, he said, the demand will. He estimates that average day demand, which was at about 19.5 million gallons per day (MGD) in 2014, will rise to 28.1 MGD by 2040.

Peak day demand – for instance, during hot, dry weather – is 150 percent of that and could drain 42.2 MGD from ground and surface water supplies at projected 2040 demand rates, according to McSmith.

“The biggest takeaway from the summit for me was hearing from experts that water scarcity is not an issue today, but it can become an issue if we don’t pay attention,” Johnson said. “I don’t think we’ll have to take drastic actions, but we want to be intentional about [water use]. We want to make sure our aquifers are not mined and preserve our quality of life and support the growth trajectory we know is coming.”

Several strategies could be used to safeguard the quality and supply of the area’s water supply, the summit’s speakers suggested.

McSmith outlined three: aquifer storage and recovery (ASR), direct potable reuse and conservation.

ASR is the practice of capturing excess water – from, say, a big rainstorm – and storing it underground and pumping it up when needed. Direct potable reuse is reclaiming used water to a drinking water standard.

Conservation, McSmith said, is one of the most popular ways to achieve a more sustainable water supply. But simply watering plants with dishwater or turning off the tap when brushing your teeth won’t achieve big results.

To help with conservation, irrigation wells – major users of water – should be monitored and evaluated, according to Catlin. He said that NCDEQ currently has data on well water withdrawal but is not analyzing it. If CFPUA could find a way to lower the cost of its water used for irrigation, Catlin suggested, fewer people would drill their own wells and water usage could be better monitored.

Another source of water is literally lapping at our shores: seawater. Several water experts mentioned desalination of seawater as a possible strategy.

“Desalination is quick and easy but very expensive,” McSmith said, estimating the cost of a desalination plant at about $140 million. “Each $7 million spent on it will result in a 1 percent rate increase [for consumers], so there would be a rate increase of about 20 percent for just the capital project alone.”

Reverse osmosis plants force salt out of water by applying pressure to seawater while forcing it through a membrane. Just such a plant is proposed for Leland by H2GO, the water utility serving northern Brunswick County.

Residents of the area are sharply divided over the merits of this project; so much so that two H2GO commissioners were defeated in their bid for re-election to the Brunswick Regional Water and Sewer Authority earlier this month. The two successful candidates campaigned on a platform that included opposition to the plant.

Johnson said WRAR members who attended the water summit were happy they had an opportunity to learn about the threats to the water supply and possible remedies while there is still time to prevent a crisis.

The next step, he said, is for the Three Star Alliance to develop a fact sheet and distribute the information. After that, the alliance plans to identify a group of leaders in the region who will gather available information, solicit  recommendations and develop a plan of action.