Sea-level rise remains an abstract concept in the minds of many. But the reality of the issue is likely to hit home sooner than many people think.

It’s up to groups such as the N.C. Coastal Resources Commission to get the word out and provide information that helps the public understand what’s at stake without creating a panic mentality.

The Coastal Resources Commission (CRC) is slated at the end of this month to receive the latest pass from its advising science panel on projections for future water levels. The last report in 2010, looking out over the next century, met head-on with political disagreement and debate over its conclusions. The newest attempt shortens the outlook to 30 years.

“I think it’s more accessible for people. I think it lines up better with typical planning horizons as well. A lot of mortgages are for 30 years,” said CRC member Neal Andrew, a Wilmington engineer.

“Certainly, there have been people who have made up their minds on both sides of the issue,” Andrew said. “No matter what kinds of information [are provided], their minds are already made up. It’s important that everyone tries to keep an open mind and be willing to have a courteous, professional discussion about it.”

After the report’s presentation to the CRC, it will go out for public comment, and groups from environmentalists to homeowners to builders are expected to weigh in, before the report is finalized in early 2016 to hand over to state lawmakers.

Sea-level rise is also an issue that the area business community is closely monitoring.

“Sea-level rise is one of the big-picture issues that people hear about, but they don’t realize the potential regulatory, monetary and administrative implications not just on business but also governments and the public,” said Tyler Newman, senior governmental affairs director for the Business Alliance for a Sound Economy, or BASE.

BASE is a trade organization that monitors legislative developments for the coastal North Carolina real estate and building industries.

Newman cited one example of the impact of sea-level rise to the public. He said there would be “significant public cost” if the Cape Fear Public Utility Authority has to raise all its sewer stations by 3 feet.

CONTENTIOUS ISSUE

Frank Gorham, named CRC chairman in 2014, finds himself at in the center of the sea rise debate.

“When I took this job I had heard of sea-level rise, but I did not think it was that important an issue,” Gorham said.

He soon learned otherwise. During his first day on the job, Gorham said he received 10 phone calls.

“Five wanted to fire anyone working with scientists [predicting] sea-level rise, and another five said North Carolina is a laughing stock because we’re not taking sea-level
rise seriously,” he recalled.

Gorham said many people have difficulty practically applying 100-year sea-level rise projections in existing studies.

“We needed a study to be 30 years,” he said. “As long as I’m chairman, there will be a 30-year study.”

The second thing Gorham decided to do after taking the helm at CRC “is not fire anyone on the science panel.”

“They’re still good scientists,” he said. “Some are very strong advocates of coastal pullback.”

COASTAL CONCERNS

Tracy E. Skrabal is a coastal scientist and southeast regional manager of the N.C. Coastal Federation, a nonprofit organization that works to protect the state’s coast through advocacy, education and habitat preservation and restoration.

“We at the Coastal Federation integrate the issue of sea-level rise into much of our coastal program work, our restoration goals and objectives and our education efforts,” Skrabal said.

“We have been actively involved in the debate of the issue in North Carolina, closely tracking the effort of [the CRC’s] Science Panel and their reports to the CRC on this issue.”

The Coastal Federation also is involved in the issue through its involvement as a member of the Restore America’s Estuaries national coalition of conservation organizations.

The CRC’s Science Panel is currently working to update the 2010 study that projected a sea-level rise of 39 inches by 2100.

Critics of the report said that use of the figures in shaping state policy could be detrimental to the coastal economy.

“People who didn’t take us seriously said, ‘How will they know what will happen in 2100?’” Gorham said.

“The report was not well received by Dean and Houston,” Gorham said. “They said it didn’t provide enough details.”

Two retired scientists, Robert Dean, a professor emeritus at the University of Florida, and James Houston, formerly of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, were asked to review study findings as the Science Panel created a new document that includes “rolling” 30-year sea-level rise projections to be updated every five years.

The Science Panel continues its efforts to update the 2010 sea-level rise report.

Criteria used includes “a comprehensive review of scientific literature and available North Carolina data that addresses the full range of global, regional and North Carolina-specific sea level change,” according to the CRC’s instructions to the panel.

The panel’s initial draft report was completed in December and forwarded to a technical peer review group including Dean and Houston for comment.

The process suffered a major setback with the death of Dean in March, but Houston agreed to finish out the peer review, Gorham said.

The draft report and all comments will be submitted to the CRC and released for public comment by March 31, Gorham said. After an extended public comment period, the report will be finalized in early 2016 and delivered to the General Assembly.

“We will send it out for public comment, and we will get comments from everywhere, from people on both sides,” Gorham said.

Report conclusions could be used to modify local zoning ordinances and potentially be implemented into the state building code, said Andrew, president of Andrew Consulting Engineers.

“I am not opposed to local jurisdictions having some flexibility in how they implement any potential recommendations,” he said.

GEOLOGIC FACTORS

Because of minute geologic shifts and sediment impaction that occurs over many thousands of years, the level of uplift along the southern coast in the state is less than in northern North Carolina. 

The 2010 study predicted a range of 15.7 to 59.1 inches of sea-level rise by 2100.

Southeastern North Carolina historically has the lowest sea-level readings, Gorham said.
In an early draft of the current report, one set of sea-level figures predicts a high-range sea-level rise by 2045 of a mean of 9.7 inches in Duck to a mean of 6.7 inches in Southport and Wilmington.

Sea-level rise forecasts by 2045 in Southport and Wilmington vary from 2.4 inches at the current rate of sea-level rise to 6.7 inches with heavy greenhouse emissions. Those figures are subject to change.

Five tide level gauges along the coast are being used in the study.

“Providing a range of values reflects both the uncertainty in the predictions and the varying nature of sea level,” the draft report said.

Sea-level rise could mean increased storm surges and flooding in some areas by 2100 if the 2010 report proves accurate.

Hurricane Hazel made landfall in October 1954 near the South Carolina border as a Category 4 hurricane packing winds of 140 mph. The draft study said that because of the sea-level change in the ensuing years, “a storm of similar intensity today, 60 years later, would have a storm surge of 6 inches higher.”
              

NO ‘ONE SHOE FITS ALL’

Gorham has lived in a home on the coast in the Wilmington area since 1998.

“I am very much local,” he said.

One of Gorham’s goals as CRC chairman is to present information to coastal communities and allow officials to make their own decisions.

“We say, ‘Here is what we think the range will be, and you pick the range,’” Gorham said. “They have a vested interest to do it right.

“The other option is to dictate to communities [where] you have to build,” he said. “I don’t like the ‘one shoe fits all,’” Gorham said only about 7 percent of the North Carolina coast is still open to development, a drastic drop from the 50-50 split of about 20 years ago.

Newman, of BASE, said that once a formal policy and projection is in place for sea-level rise, many local governments will be compelled to adopt management policies dealing with the issue in their land use plans.

“These management policies would not only affect private infrastructure but would also affect public infrastructure like piers, docks, water and sewer, roads, bridges and launching facilities, just to name a few,” Newman said.

Adding a sea-level rise component “which can be extremely subjective to begin with” to a Coastal Area Management Act land use plan “poses a potential risk for far-reaching policy guidelines that that could lead to over-extensive regulatory measures, excessive development and building costs, and potential increases in other areas such as coastal homeowner insurance and flood insurance, Newman said.

BASE is also concerned that with the expansion of the historical definition of a floodplain, unclear scope of policies affecting different federal agencies “and the possible confusion between agency plans,” he said.

WEIGHING IN
For more info about the sea-level rise and details about providing public comments, click here.