It’s a silver-lining celluloid tale of redemption and realized dreams.

Those close to the North Carolina film industry believe a successful sequel to the moviemaking boom of earlier years is in store with the passage of a 25 percent tax credit by the General Assembly.

An analysis prepared for review by state lawmakers projects that an estimated $250 million in qualified spending in 2010 will take place in North Carolina, along with another $300 million in 2011. That level of qualified spending is equivalent to more than $370 million in total spending in 2010 and $445 million in 2011, according to the study.

That spending level would create more than 1,300 direct film production jobs in 2010 and over 1,500 jobs in 2011. Total employment impact from film production activity is estimated to be 3,320 in 2010 and grow to nearly 4,000 jobs by 2011.

“With the 25 percent incentive, you’re going to see job growth in North Carolina and the production industry. We will see film production double and triple in the first three years of the incentive,” said Aaron Syrett, director of the N.C. Film Office. Syrett said total direct and indirect state and local tax impacts from film productions under a 25 percent tax credit equals an estimated $40 million in 2010 and $48 million in 2011.

Industry analysts said that the 15 percent tax incentive offered since 2007 by the state initially served its purpose but was outstripped by more extensive benefit packages enacted in other states, and challenged by the recession economy. The result is a relatively fallow period for the film industry in Wilmington and other sections of North Carolina.

Bill Vassar, EUE Screen Gems executive vice president, said the 25 percent tax credit will result in $100 million in direct out-of-state spending for 2010. He said producers and studios are lining up to discuss projects in North Carolina.

“We are fielding calls. Interest has picked up in the last few weeks,” Vassar said. “We are in the running for projects that will start later this year and the beginning of 2010.”

According to the N.C. Department of Commerce, 42 states have passed incentives to recruit and retain film productions. At least 28 of them had bigger incentives than North Carolina’s 15 percent package. North Carolina still retains a competitive edge because of the industry-related infrastructure already in place and a trained crew base. Vassar said the 25 percent incentive and other plusses like the recently opened, high-tech Stage 10 on the EUE Screen Gems lot make Wilmington much more attractive to prospective suitors.

All studios are watching their bottom line in the current economic environment, said Johnny Griffin, director of the Wilmington Regional Film Commission. The previous 15 percent film tax credit caused North Carolina to lag behind states with significantly higher tax breaks.

A case in point is Walt Disney Pictures, which recently was poised to commit to filming the Miley Cyrus project “The Last Song” in Wil­mington. But the major studio bolted to Savannah, Ga. at the last minute when details of an incentives package could not be worked out. The movie recently began production in Savannah, with between 150 to 200 Wilmington-based crew members providing technical expertise for the film.

Griffin said millions of other dollars were never spent in Wilmington by Cyrus’ devoted pre-teen fans and their families, who will flock to Savannah instead.

“If we had the 25 percent incentive earlier this year, Miley Cyrus would be filming right now at Wrightsville Beach,” Vassar said.

Georgia increased its film credit to as high as 30 percent in 2008.

“That was a business decision, and of course we want Disney back in North Carolina. At 25 percent, we’re at their levels where they could certainly bring something to North Carolina,” Syrett said.

Two economic studies presented recently to the General Assembly projected benefits from a 25 percent tax credit. The studies, by the University of North Carolina Wilmington and the Ernst & Young accounting firm, projected the creation of 4,254 film industry jobs in 2010 and more than 5,000 jobs in 2011. The statewide economic impact of the 25 percent tax credit is estimated to be in excess of $700 million in 2010 and $858 million in 2011.

“The alternative to remaining competitive is the dissolution of large portions of the industry and the loss of tax revenue based on the out-migration of highly skilled, highly compensated individuals to other ‘film’ states,” the study concludes.

Syrett would not divulge details, be said late last month he has received “tons” of inquiries about filming in the state and the 25 percent tax credit. “This news has hit LA and the studios,” he said.

Some work may have to be done to repair the rift with Disney, Griffin said. “When you have a relationship with a company that does not end positively, it’s just going to be harder to please them with any future business you’re involved in,” he said. “It was obviously a big disappointment to lose that.”

EUE Screen Gems and the local film industry has enjoyed a longstanding positive relationship with Disney, Griffin said.

Studios compare notes, Griffin added.

“Disney talks to Paramount which talks to Warner Brothers which talks to Fox,” Griffin said. “Believe me, they trust each other before they trust us.”

But Griffin asserts that a 25 percent tax credit will do wonders to bring in new business.

“In the past, we’ve always been the place that given the right project, it could work for them, but once they got into the financial details, they said North Carolina is not the right place,” Griffin said.  “If we see the change in the incentive, I think we will be right back on the radar. It all hinges on that, quite honestly.”

More than 2,000 North Carolina residents make their living in the movie industry, Syrett said in a June 15 memo.

“North Carolina is uniquely positioned to recruit an abundant share of the motion picture industry from other states because of its significant workforce depth and highly developed infrastructure,” Syrett wrote.