A community where employees can afford to live close to where they work, reducing traffic and improving individual and shared quality of life. One whose workforce has disposable income remaining for savings, investment and entertainment after paying for housing expenses.  One where high performers can be retained and renters aspire to—and realize—their dream of becoming homeowners. These are all characteristics of an economically vibrant community that has achieved a degree of housing affordability for residents across a range of incomes.

On May 20th, the Wilmington/New Hanover County Workforce Housing Advisory Committee hosted a business community discussion with help from the Wilmington Chamber of Commerce, Cape Fear REALTORS, and Cape Fear-Wilmington Homebuilders Association. The topic—Housing affordability and its impact on the vitality of our regional economy. The gathering offered an opportunity to share some of the latest data on an issue that communities across the state and nation share, but that has largely been framed as a problem, especially acute in the Cape Fear area since the inception of the pandemic. 

North Carolina Housing Supply Gap Analysis and Economic Impact Report

Natalie English, CEO of the Wilmington Chamber of Commerce, shared highlights of this report commissioned by the NC Chamber Foundation, North Carolina Home Builders Association, and NC REALTORS:

• There is a statewide gap of over 322,000 rental units and 442,000 units of for-sale inventory, creating a total shortage of more than 750,000 housing units;
• Closing both the rental and for-sale housing gaps in North Carolina could generate $489 billion in economic activity and create nearly 2.2 million jobs in the state;
• What was once a challenge largely in the City of Wilmington and New Hanover County alone now stretches throughout the Cape Fear area to include rising housing costs across Brunswick and Pender Counties as well: New Hanover County lacks more than 21,000 needed housing units (about 50% rental and 50% for-sale), Brunswick County lacks more than 15,000 (roughly 25% rental and 75% for-sale), and Pender County lacks more than 5,000 (about 33% rental and 67% for-sale);
• Median rents are now above $1,000 a month across all three counties, with lower-than-healthy rental vacancy rates in Brunswick and Pender Counties and no vacancies for tax credit or subsidized units in New Hanover County;
• Median list prices for for-sale housing have ballooned to $549,000 in New Hanover County, $480,000 in Brunswick County, and $585,000 in Pender County, far beyond the reach of many residents but especially those aspiring to first-time homeownership.

A Place to Call Home: Addressing the Cape Fear Region Housing Gap 

Commissioned by Cape Fear REALTORS and produced by Cape Fear Collective, this report informed remarks by Lead Data Scientist Abla Elsergany and is the latest in a series of regular efforts by the REALTORS to foster understanding of what makes for a healthy housing market and to promote smart growth and housing attainability. Some highlights:

• A household is considered “housing cost-burdened” when the amount of income it expends on housing costs exceeds the recommended 30%. In New Hanover County, 54% of renters and 22% of homeowners meet this definition, reflecting some 20,000 households where housing costs consume an unhealthy—and potentially unsustainable—portion of their earnings. Where Brunswick and Pender Counties were once considered significantly more affordable to residents, their cost burdened figures are surprisingly similar, with both experiencing housing cost burden for 51% of their renters and 22% of their homeowners;
• “Availability exceeds attainability…Housing attainability refers to expanding access to quality housing by offering a broader range of housing types that reflect the varied needs of people across different ages, income levels, and household sizes.”
• Recommendations include analyzing regulatory costs of new home builds in the Cape Fear, as nationally these can account for almost $100,000 of a home’s sale price; diversifying housing supply, better aligning supply with demand; increasing awareness of homeownership assistance resources; and investing in our aging housing stock, not solely new construction. 

And then there are the uncomfortable realities of a growing community, in the background of every housing discussion and posing added challenges to an already daunting problem. Every housing report issued since the beginning of the pandemic has shared the difficult news of anticipated steady population growth over the next two decades. Growth about which most current residents are not enthusiastic, and adding to the need for additional housing to meet the needs of people at all levels of income. As regional economist Dr. Mouhcine Guettabi shared on the 20th, the population of our metropolitan area accounts for only about 4% of the state’s total population yet more than 9% of the state’s population growth, with the Tri-County area seeing an increase of 56,000 residents between 2020 and 2024 alone. Especially post-Covid, he explained, much of our growth has been “in-migration” from other areas: “As always, growth is not painless and requires adequate investment to retain a high quality of life”.

The call to quantify the need has been met. As a community we will continue to measure supply, demand and the gap between, but the case has been well made and re-established for years now—we have a shortage of many thousands of units, both rental and for-sale, and especially for households with incomes at or below our Area Median Income. Equally robust, though, is the evidence that private and public investments in housing will reap significant economic benefits for our region and the people who live and work here. Let’s make 2025 the year where we collectively lean into the opportunity that housing affordability provides us all. 
 
Katrina Knight, MSW
Executive Director, Good Shepherd Center

Resources:
https://ncchamber.com/foundation/nc-housing-analysis/
https://nchousing.org/county-fact-sheets/