There is no doubt that the Cape Fear region has experienced considerable growth over the past five years.

That growth is reflected in the number of jobs in the area – 19,000 more than in 2019; wages, which are 50% higher; but perhaps there is no metric that reflects the significant changes occurring in the region more than migration.

While there have been several articles documenting the significant Sun Belt migration, very little attention has been paid to the changing sources of these in-migrants and the income differences between in-migrants and locals, and the implications on the communities experiencing this growth.

In 2011, the number of people who moved to New Hanover County totaled 12,946, which represents about 9% of the people who did not move from New Hanover County that year.

Fifty-four percent of these in-migrants moved from other counties within the state, and the rest moved from other states around the country.

Interestingly, the average household income for those moving from within and from outside the state was almost exactly the same and stood at about $43,000.

Fast forward to 2021-22, the latest year for which we have IRS data, and the number of movers exceeded 14,500, with more than 55% of them coming from out of state, and the rest coming from other counties around the state.

In just over a decade, the share of in-migrants coming from outside of the state increased by 10 percentage points.

Importantly, the average household income of out-of-state movers stands at $97,000, which exceeds that of in-state movers by $18,000.

So, not only has the balance of moves shifted from within to outside of the state, but the incomes have also changed considerably.
The story is even more pronounced for Brunswick County where the number of movers increased from 7,637 to 14,104 in the span of a decade, and the share of those moving from out of state increased from 51% to 55%.

Staggeringly, the average income of households coming to Brunswick County from out of the state increased to $130,000, from just over $80,000 a decade earlier.

Why should we care about these changes?

First, an area’s personal income consists of not only wages and salaries but also investment dollars, retirement and transfers.

The migration patterns we describe above mean that the income pie is shifting from an expansion of nonwage dollars, as well as an increase in earnings of area residents employed in other parts of the country.

Therefore, to understand the area’s consumption and spending patterns, it will be important to not only to monitor the labor market but also the changes to wage income.

Second and perhaps more importantly, the policy preferences for these new residents coming from outside of the state might differ than those of the area’s current residents and will have implications for economic development choices and infrastructure decisions.

Where does this leave us?

The southeastern portion of North Carolina, due to its natural amenities, growing economic bases and burgeoning entrepreneurial scene, will continue growing and attracting people and businesses from outside the region.

Understanding this growth by monitoring not only the labor market but also migration patterns and changes in nonwage income will be crucial to shaping successful policies.

 Mouhcine Guettabi is a regional economist with UNCW’s Swain Center and an associate professor of economics at UNCW’s Cameron School of Business.