Flooding due to Hurricane Florence is projected to have major impacts on the Cape Fear River as the water levels rise from the storm's rainfall.
Forecasters from the National Weather Service's office in Wilmington said the hurricane’s slow motion is what is causing emergency officials to brace for a “very prolonged flood event.”
And as the storm continues to slowly move over Southeastern North Carolina, the threat of rising flood waters and storm surges along the coast is one of many concerns for regional officials.
"If rainfall forecasts and the resulting river forecasts verify, we could be dealing with flood that's as bad or worse than the effects of hurricanes Matthew and Floyd in some of our basins," NWS forecasters said Friday afternoon.
They cautioned, however, that depends on "how and where the rain really falls versus what we're forecasting. If the axis of heaviest observed rainfall or the amounts are off by a little, it will affect how the rivers respond," said Richard Neuherz, a hydrologist with the weather service's Wilmington office.
The impacts of river flooding are expected to continue into next week.
The Northeast Cape Fear River near Burgaw, in particular, is forecasted to see major flooding early next week. It's one of nine rivers expected to reach major flooding in the NWS Wilmington region, according to Friday afternoon predictions.
That number is up from six rivers were forecasted to have major flooding in an earlier report Friday morning.
According to the Friday afternoon river flood forecast, the Northeast Cape Fear River near Burgaw will rise to "minor flooding tonight, and crest in record flood on Tuesday."
"The forecast crest is about 3 feet higher than Hurricane Floyd in 1999," officials stated in the report.
Pender County officials have positioned high-profile vehicles and swift-water rescue boats to prepare, said Tammy Proctor, the county's public information officer.
"Floyd is the benchmark storm for flooding," she said, referring to the 1999 hurricane. "We are waiting to see how much rainfall we receive from this storm. If NWS predictions remain on track, we will see significant rainfall."
Greg Williams, chief of the engineering branch within the Wilmington district of the Army Corps of Engineers, said Friday that much of the current rain accumulation that can be seen in the area is due to rain falling and not yet overflowing streams.
One of the biggest worries about inland flooding is that it starts sometime after the storm, Williams said.
“Rain [that] is falling now, it has to hit the ground and run off and get into streams and rivers, and it takes it a while for all of it to make its way and actually start having flood effects on some of these bigger rivers," he said.
One of the biggest flooding challenges Wilmington faces is due to its flat landscape, which when combined with rainfall runoff into the Cape Fear River could cause localized flooding in downtown Wilmington.
“I think Water Street is probably going to be flooded if it's not already,” Williams said. “Some of the small streams that will feed the Cape Fear could be flooding.”
Some of the most affected beaches could be Topsail Beach, where the Army Corps of Engineers has not conducted an active renourishment project, which means the beach strand would be more impacted than those in the area that have had active renourishment projects.
“They are going to be less protected maybe than a beach than a renourished beach or with a robust dune,” Williams said. “Wrightsville could have taken a big hit, but we just renourished it too back in the winter. It’s possible that renourishment helps reduce damages at least from surge waves, but until we get out there and take a look at it, we really don't know.”
Flooding and road over washing could also affect the sewer and water lines that run along the road on beaches as well as decks and piers, he said.
Wrightsville Beach town officials said in a 1 p.m. Friday update that after an assessment of the island, shallow flooding was found on Harbor Island and in other low-lying areas of the town.
Roadway flooding was also being reported in the town of Carolina Beach, including on Winner Avenue and Canal Drive.
