Several local issues discussed and debated in 2024 centered around growth in the Cape Fear region. As a result, government and business leaders are keeping an eye on what happens next in areas that include residential real estate, infrastructure and potential land preservation.

HOUSING CHALLENGES

Homebuilding and residential development plans in the Wilmington-area continued to dominate headlines in 2024.

Some officials say that while the Cape Fear region has a strong economic foundation and remains one of the fastest-growing parts of the U.S. and state, putting new residential units on the ground could face numerous challenges in 2025. Others are more optimistic, citing anticipated policy changes.

Meanwhile, plans for thousands of housing units made headlines in New Hanover, Brunswick and Pender counties in 2024.

Jackie Benson, a Wells Fargo economist who specializes in housing, commercial real estate and regional economies, said inflation would play a part.

High mortgage rates, which have slowed some homebuilding, “are here to stay,” Benson said. “If you look over the past five months, inflation hasn’t really budged all that much after steadily declining at least from the peak in 2022, so we’re already stuck in a rut. And the added threat of tariff-induced inflation or tax cut-induced inflation, all of this means that the Fed is probably going to exercise a bit more caution in cutting rates moving forward, and we have revised up our forecast for where we think interest rates are going to settle.”

As of Dec. 6, rates were slightly down from the week before, according to Bankrate.com, falling from nearly 7% to 6.8%.

The National Association of Home Builders’ builder sentiment survey showed that sentiment “perked up” upon the triumph of President-elect Donald Trump in November’s election, Benson said. That’s not because of his platform points related to increasing tariffs or immigration but because of hopes for deregulation, she said. High regulatory costs, homebuilders say, create headaches for the industry and lead to higher prices for buyers.

Local homebuilders and other real estate industry professionals were upbeat during a panel discussion just after the election. The Cape Fear Sales & Marketing Council’s builder panel breakfast, held Nov. 8 at The Surf Club in Wrightsville Beach, was titled, “The Newly-Elected Housing Market: What Tuesday’s Results Mean for 2025’s Business.” Shawn Horton, owner of Wilmington-based Trusst Builder Group, and Holly Overton, vice president and one of the owners of Charter Building Group, were pleased with the spotlight put on affordable housing by candidates on the national level.

“I think that’s going to help us get a lot of the things we need to get done for affordable housing,” Overton said. “We’ll have more public support for those things.”

Horton said the National Association of Home Builders has a multi-faceted plan for improving housing affordability, “things like eliminating excess regulations, promoting careers and skilled trades ... and I think there’s a renewed focus on that.”

On Nov. 11, National Association of Realtors’ chief economist Lawrence Yun predicted existing home sales to rise 9% year-over-year in 2025, and new home sales to jump 11%.
 

BUILDING A BRIDGE

Officials announced in July that the effort to replace the Cape Fear Memorial Bridge had received a $242 million U.S. Department of Transportation grant.

Local government and business leaders across the Cape Fear region have for years pushed for funding the replacement of the bridge, built in 1969. The total cost of the replacement has been estimated at nearly $500 million.

A connector between Brunswick and New Hanover counties, the bridge carries more than 70,000 cars and trucks across the river each day and is projected to carry nearly 100,000 vehicles by 2050. After members of the Wilmington Urban Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (WMPO) approved exploring a tolled replacement option, the project scored higher in the N.C. Department of Transportation’s prioritization.

Gov. Roy Cooper called the grant “a game changer for the people of Southeastern North Carolina.”
So what’s next?

The WMPO will “continue to work with our partners at NCDOT to identify the necessary funding needed to deliver the replacement of the Cape Fear Memorial Bridge. NCDOT and the Merger Team (WMPO is a signatory agency) will continue to develop the environmental document that is required for the bridge replacement project,” said Mike Kozlosky, executive director of the WMPO. “Based on the current schedule, the selection of the preferred alternative is anticipated in summer 2025. In addition, NCDOT plans to hold a public hearing in summer 2025.”
 

PRESERVATION POTENTIAL

Officials with North Carolina land preservation organization Coastal Land Trust announced in March that they had entered an agreement to purchase about 150 acres of undeveloped property on Topsail Island in Pender County for nearly $8 million after more than a year of turmoil over the site by community members.

Serenity Point, or The Point, on the south end of Topsail Island in Pender County, is one of the largest and last remaining tracts of undeveloped beachfront land on North Carolina’s barrier islands.

According to a Business Journal article at the time of the announcement, the Coastal Land Trust negotiated and signed a contract to purchase The Point to place it into permanent conservation.

Three families, the McCullens, McLeods and Oppegaards, have owned the undeveloped parcel since the 1960s, allowing the public of Topsail Island to use the beach land recreationally. In 2022, Todd Olson, CEO of Raleigh software company Pendo, proposed a rezoning of the property to the town of Topsail Beach but rescinded the rezoning request in November 2023 after the town placed conditions on it and community members voiced strong opposition to the plans.

In November this year, land trust officials announced that the trust had been awarded a $500,000 grant from the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation’s (NFWF) Acres for America Program to help purchase The Point.

“This grant is an important step toward our fundraising goal. We are grateful for NFWF’s support and excited to be one step closer to saving the South End forever,” wrote Eric Vreeland, director of strategic advancement for the trust, in an announcement email Nov. 21. “Thanks to everyone who has supported this bold, beautiful project thus far. We have raised $6.5 million toward our nearly $8 million goal, with a decision on our final $1 million grant expected in just a few weeks. If approved, we only have $350,000 left to raise to see this project through to completion.”

Another sensitive area of potential development garnered attention from local leaders in 2024 and will likely be on their radar in 2025.

In October, the New Hanover County Board of Commissioners amended the county’s Comprehensive Plan to include new development guidelines for the Cape Fear River’s western bank.

The amendment creates a new Riverfront Conservation place type for the western bank and outlines specific implementation guidelines and infrastructure considerations for future development, according to a Business Journal story.

Commissioner Dane Scalise, who was re-elected in November, advocated for county staff and leaders to continue to look into brownfield mitigation programs and grant funding to help the county purchase land on the western bank.

“For me, that remains the highest priority, and just because we pass this doesn’t mean we say, ‘We’re done. We did it,’” Scalise said in October. “We haven’t done it yet; we have to continue on to the finish line.”