Jim Wallace’s words summed up some of the prevailing opinions Wednesday morning among industry leaders at a panel discussion on the local real estate market’s present and future.

“There’s no question that real estate is back,” said Wallace, CEO of Intracoastal Realty and a panelist for the Broker Breakfast Roundtable, presented by the Wilmington-Cape Fear Home Builders Association’s sales and marketing council.

“It’s a challenging market, but it’s a good market,” Wallace added, addressing an audience of builders, real estate agents and other association members at Lumina Hall in Wrightsville Beach.

Panelist Jeff Sweyer, owner of Century 21 Sweyer and Associates, expressed optimism about the future, citing a market forecast from Realogy, parent company for Century 21, Coldwell Banker and Coldwell Banker Commercial, among other firms.

Beginning in 2015, “the prediction is the next four or five years are going to be pretty good,” Sweyer said.

'Pent-up demand'

Home ownership at the moment is down about 4 percentage points from its 2004 peak of 69 percent, pointed out panelist Tim Milam, president of Coldwell Banker Sea Coast Advantage.  

“I think a lot of that has to do with the last few years” and the difficult times experienced by all, he said.

Still, Milam said, he believes those who want to become homeowners exist in greater numbers than might be apparent at the moment.

“You keep reading articles about well, they [younger buyers] don’t want to buy a house; they don’t want to own a house because they saw their parents or their … older brothers and sisters when they lost equity in their homes,” Milam said. “I don’t believe that’s the case. I think there’s a lot of pent-up demand.”

As some evidence of this, Milam described a recent realty conference he attended, where experts said “they believe that the year 2015-16 will be really strong. ... The market in Wilmington is up this year. If we can get this for another three or four or five years, we should be happy about that.”

Lending and interest rates

Panelist Michael Lopez, president and owner of Wilmington-based Alpha Mortgage Corporation, said the most recent changes in lending “are really just documentation changes. We need a lot of documentation, but we need it right up front.”

With documentation in place, “we’re finding in every price category, we can get those people qualified and very quickly. We continue to close in 15 days.”

When it comes to interest rates, Lopez said he predicts they’ll drift a little higher than the current 4.5 percent category they’re in now, depending on the actions of the Federal Reserve.

Lopez added, “The significant part of interest rates is that people at every price category are expecting somebody besides themselves to pay closing costs.”

Not a lot of lots

A dearth of affordable lots, particularly in New Hanover County, remains a challenge for new home builders, panelists said.

“Finding $50,000 lots in New Hanover County – if you know of any, let us know,” quipped Milam, a statement greeted by laughs.

Panelists said the problem with the shortage is that more expensive lots interfere with the need to provide homes at $350,000 and below, the price at which about 80 percent of new homes are sold, according to recent statistics. Sixty-eight percent of new homes are sold at $300,000 and below.

In New Hanover County, “you’ll never see big subdivisions again, but you will see some that are 15-, 20-, 25-home subdivisions,” Sweyer said. “I think that’s the only land we have left.”

As a result, he said, “we’re going to be going to the outlying areas.” Recently, a majority of enquiries from builders and consumers about new home sites have involved “the Scotts Hill Loop area all the way up to Holly Ridge,” where bigger tracts are available.

In Brunswick County’s Leland area, “One of every four homes that are sold are over on that side in terms of new construction. That’s still the dominating area,” Sweyer said, citing Wilmington Regional Association of Realtors numbers.