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Banking & Finance

Financial Advice For The Post-Brexit Landscape

By Jenny Callison, posted Jul 28, 2016
Pathfinder Wealth Consulting CEO Jason Wheeler has been advising clients there could be an upside to the economic turmoil in the U.K. (Photo by Chris Brehmer)

In the face of uncertainty resulting from the United Kingdom’s vote last month to withdraw from the European Union, what are financial advisers telling their clients?

The advice from two local advisers on post-Brexit strategies might be summarized as a riff on the famous British World War II poster: Keep calm and look for the upside.

In a note to its clients earlier this month, officials at Wilmington-based Pathfinder Wealth Consulting wrote, “Investors typically welcome sharp market movements with about the same level of enthusiasm that canines show for fireworks. However, recent market agitations highlighted a key tenet of investing: Volatility often creates opportunity.”

“The average person thinks, ‘Oh no, I hear recession,’” Pathfinder CEO Jason Wheeler said recently. “Essentially, though, stuff like Brexit creates opportunity, if you are willing to take on more risk or [look at] a longer time horizon. It’s an opportunity to look for stocks to purchase.

“Obviously, ours is a global economy, and there’s the reality of a currency shift. There has been an 8-10 percent decline in the pound,” he continued. “People are worried about where to put their money to keep it safe, where they can make any money. Since they are unsure about the future of England or the EU, [investors] go to the U.S.”

Vinton Fountain, president of Wilmington’s Fountain Financial Associates, similarly has assured his firm’s clients to stay the course after the Brexit disruption.

“Our interpretation, in terms of how we are directing assets, is the first rule is ‘Don’t lose money,’” he said. “The way you do that is to not react to this volatility. I believe if you own the best business in the world and do not change your behavior, ultimately you will see the value of that business and its dividends increase over time. That is a known outcome of every event occurring over time. Our role is navigating all the different scenarios and making sure [our clients’] lifetime of income is secure.”

Fountain sees the same populist sentiment at work in Britain as in the U.S., but points out that the sentiment’s result in the Brexit vote casts the U.K. and the EU into uncharted waters.

“Brexit is not over; it has just begun,” he said. “No one knows how it will play out. It will take a while, maybe years. It does not appear to me to be an economic strength for the U.K. in the long term. It will create a lot of turmoil in their currency and their banking system, leading maybe to an unprecedented effect on their currency and to a lowering of their interest rates, maybe below zero.”

But the Brexit storm causing choppy waters in the U.K. and Europe – where the pound and the euro are both lower against the dollar these days – is bringing freshening winds to parts of the U.S. economy.

As Wheeler pointed out, higher risk in foreign markets is driving investors to the U.S. 

“People shaken by Brexit – even if that is temporary – will want to put their money somewhere else. They are buying up Treasuries, which drives down the [yield] rates,” he said. “Treasury notes are [offering] a record-low yield, and there’s very little difference between 2- and 10-year notes.”

Because of that low rate of return, the financial media are reporting that foreign and American investors are looking at equities as a relatively safe place to put their money.

Low T-note returns are also keeping mortgage rates near historic lows, since mortgage rates are tied to bond yields.

Turmoil abroad also affects other interest rates here at home.

Although market watchers expected a rise in interest rates, global uncertainties make that unlikely in the near term, Wheeler said. 

Wells Fargo’s chief economist is of the same mind. Charlotte-based John Silvia believes volatility in global markets is likely to make the Federal Reserve reluctant to raise interest rates.

The result? Attractive interest rates, including low mortgage rates, mean more borrowing power for Americans, Silvia said in mid-July.

“This week, housing starts and sales of existing homes will show a rise,” he said, his prediction borne out with the housing industry’s announcement of a 4.8 percent increase in June housing starts and the National Association of Realtors’ announcement soon afterward that sales of existing homes sales in June climbed 1.5 percent, continuing a four-month upward trend.

Locally, real estate agents are reporting a very strong sales environment.

“We have seen an uptick in sales recently,” said Michelle Clark, a Realtor with Intracoastal Realty Corp. “The last month or two has been very busy for all our agents, and with homes at all prices. I had four closings last week.”

She attributes this strength to continued very low mortgage rates and higher consumer confidence, even in the months leading up to a presidential election.

Low rates are driving refinancing activity among homebuyers, Clark noted, saying that she had just refinanced her own home.

Homeowners – as well as those in the market for a home – should assess opportunities to take advantage of low mortgage rates, Melanie Welsh said. Welsh, vice president of business development at OnQ Financial Inc. in Wilmington, said, “I would advise homeowners to talk with a mortgage professional to see if they would benefit from refinancing at the current rates.”

The traditional rule of thumb – a new mortgage rate should be at least one point lower than a mortgagee’s current rate in order to yield real savings – is not always the case, Welsh added, citing a number of factors that can make even a smaller decrease merit the refinance.

The triple factors of lower interest rates, low inflation rates and increased household (or business) income create a good environment for borrowers in the U.S., Silvia said.

Despite instability abroad stemming from Brexit, terrorist events and the attempted coup in Turkey, there are investment opportunities in some foreign markets, Wheeler suggested.

“People should start really thinking about those markets,” he said. “Think about increasing your exposure. But [such investment] is not something that’s going to pay off in six months or a year.”

There’s yet another way that Americans can benefit from the Brexit-caused tumble of the pound, Wheeler added.

“If you are simply vacationing, now is the time to start looking at going over [to the U.K.]. Start shopping now,” he said.

 

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